CORSIA carbon credit demand expected to outstrip supply by 2030 – Abatable analysis

Published: 14 May 2024Last updated: 14 May 2024

The surplus of CORSIA-eligible carbon credits is expected to become negative by 2030 in the absence of new supplies coming online, according to Abatable analysis. Alejandro Limón Portillo and Greg Lydka Morris outline the findings and explain what’s next for the CORSIA scheme after its bumpy start.

The aviation sector contributes around 3% to global emissions today. As a hard-to-abate sector, direct low-carbon technological solutions including the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electrification are being developed to reduce this impact, but they will take time to proliferate due to current cost and technological barriers.

In the interim, to address emissions the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2016 adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, to address the projected growth of the sector’s emissions from a 2019 baseline. Under the scheme, any growth in aviation emissions from 85% of 2019 levels needs to be mitigated.


Government targets 10% of jet fuel to come from sustainable sources

The Government has outlined fresh plans to ensure that 10% of all fuel used in flights departing from the UK consist of sustainable sources by 2030.

at EDIE Published 25th April 2024

Government targets 10% of jet fuel to come from sustainable sources

The Government unveiled the new 10% target on Thursday (25 April), which is set to come into force in January 2025, subject to parliamentary approval.

Under the target, the Government estimates that 1.2m tonnes of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) will be supplied to the UK airline industry annually – enough to circle the globe 3,000 times. Proponents of SAFs state that the fuels can produce up to 70% less carbon emissions than the traditional fossil fuels used in most commercial flights.

Transport Secretary Mark Harper said: “Sustainable aviation fuel protects the future of UK aviation, the thousands of British jobs that depend on it, and the holidays and business travel flights that we all rely on.

“As part of our plan to grow the economy, the measures announced today will give both UK aviation and the UK SAF industry the certainty they need to keep creating skilled British jobs while giving passengers the freedom to continue travelling by air in a way that’s fit for the future.”


Vattenfall completes ‘world-first’ development for offshore hydrogen production

Kittiwake in flight at Aberdeen Offshore Wind Farm. Image: Vattenfall
The Crown Estate and National Grid ESO will collaborate on a Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) and a Marine Delivery Routemap. Image: Vattenfall.

Swedish state-owned power company Vattenfall has completed the “world-first” development phase for offshore hydrogen production in Scotland.

The innovation project, which has been exploring the possibilities of hydrogen production via offshore wind farms and transportation to shore, has concluded following two years of work.

Dubbed the HT1 Project, Vattenfall’s project was designed around its European Offshore Wind Development Centre located off the coast of Aberdeen. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s (DESNZ) Low Carbon Hydrogen Supply 2 funding programme funded the project.

Having tested the development phase for decentralised offshore hydrogen production and in light of other industry advances, Vattenfall has decided to conclude the project. Vattenfall will continue to explore fossil fuel-free hydrogen production as part of the energy transition.


Zonal pricing and new gas power stations will be introduced in Britain

Energy secretary Claire Coutinho attends the IEA conference in France. Image: UK government (flickr).

Energy secretary Claire Coutinho has announced that a zonal pricing system will be introduced in Britain and confirmed the UK government’s support for new domestic gas power plants.

Today’s announcement (12 March) confirms reports circulating yesterday that the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) will introduce stronger locational signals in Britain’s wholesale market to incentivise the development of renewable assets around cities so that densely populated areas can access cheaper renewable electricity.

Image: FTI Consulting and Energy Systems Catapult.

A zonal market splits electricity prices across a few large regions – as illustrated in an example previously produced by management consultancy FTI Consulting and market researcher Energy Systems Catapult – all consumers within a defined zone or region are then charged the same price.

The new scheme would also see electricity generators paid different rates according to the distance between assets and consumers.

According to FTI Consulting and Energy Systems Catapult’s aforementioned report, commissioned by Ofgem, consumer savings could range between £15 billion and £31 billion between 2025 and 2040 if a zonal market mechanism was implemented.


UK ranks worst of top Western Europe economies for green funding

UK River View
The UK is ranked worst of the top five Western European economies for green spending. Image: David Dickson (geograph).

New Greenpeace analysis has revealed that the UK takes last place in the top five Western European economies on green investments.

Canadian campaign group Greenpeace analysed the International Energy Agency (IEA) government energy spending tracker that looks at 2020-2023 and found that the UK spends less on green endeavours than Germany, Italy, Spain and France.

The country also comes out worst when looking at per-capita green energy spending, and it ranks worst for total spending on low carbon and efficient transport out of those countries, even though transport is the UK’s largest emitting sector for greenhouse gas emissions.


Hunt to raise landfill tax by 21% to boost waste sector investment


Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has outlined plans to raise the standard rate of landfill tax by 21% in 2025 in an attempt to boost investment in “more sustainable waste management infrastructure”.

Hunt’s spring Budget included a rise in the standard rate from £103.70 a tonne to £126.15 from 1 April 2025. The lower rate will rise from £3.30 to £4.05. This will raise around £50m a year for the Treasury.


New analysis warns of energy ‘crunch point’ for UK in 2028

Cruachan Dam, Scotland, an existing 440MW pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) facility, one of only four in the UK. PHES is the most commercially mature LDES technology, with a duration typically between 4 and 20 hours. Image: Drax Power.
According to the report, this shortfall would be caused by a "perfect storm" of increased demand, the retirement of existing assets, and delays in the completion of Hinkley Point C. Image: Drax Power.

A new report commissioned by Drax has discovered an energy ‘crunch point’ in 2028 where demand will exceed secure dispatchable baseload capacity by 7.5GW at peak times.

Conducted by business management consultant Public First, the ‘Mind the gap: Exploring Britain’s energy crunch’ report revealed that this is nearly double the shortfall recorded in 2022 (4GW) and represents the tightest headroom for the next five years.

In 2028 the total de-rated capacity will be just 5GW higher, roughly 40% less than the 8.5GW of headroom predicted across 2024 and 2027. This gap could increase even more (50%), continued the report, due to uncertainty around biomass generators which contribute more than 3GW of dispatchable power.

According to the report, this shortfall would be caused by a “perfect storm” of increased demand when more low-carbon technologies are adopted, the retirement of existing assets, and delays in the completion of the 2.5GW Hinkley Point C.


New study warns of low UK energy build rate ramifications

AtkinsRealis forecasts negative consequences if UK government does not accelerate energy build rate. Image: Flickr Sheila Sund.
AtkinsRealis forecasts negative consequences if UK government does not accelerate energy build rate. Image: Flickr Sheila Sund.

Research published by engineering company AtkinsRéalis has forecast negative consequences if the UK’s annual energy build rate does not increase.

In 2019, AtkinsRéalis predicted a necessary build rate of 10.5GW per year to achieve the UK government’s goal of net zero electricity by 2050.

Since that point, however, the government updated its net zero power goalpost, moving it to 2035, so AtkinsRéalis updated its study in accordance.

The 2022 version of the research, now named Countdown to 2035, calculated the UK needed to build 14GW per year to reach net zero power by 2035, which has now jumped to 15.5GW per year in its January 2024 publication.

In contrast, the highest ever recorded build rate in the UK was 6.5GW in 2017, a number which has since fallen quite significantly, with 2022 seeing only 4.5GW connected to the national electricity grid.

AtkinsRéalis predicts that if the UK increases the build rate by 10% each year, it will need to be connecting 40GW per year by 2035.


Drax secures Government planning approval for its major BECCS project

Energy Security and Net-Zero Secretary Claire Coutinho has approved Drax’s £2bn plans to install carbon capture and storage technology at its power plant in Selby, Yorkshire.

Published 16th January 2024

Drax secures Government planning approval for its major BECCS project

Image: Drax Group

Drax’s power station was originally completely coal-fired but, over the past ten years, the facility’s six generating units were converted to run on biomass. The final two units were converted in early 2023.

The new Government decision, taken on Tuesday (16 January), grants Drax permission to add carbon capture technology to two of the units.

Will Gardiner, chief executive at Drax Group, called the approval “another milestone”.

The business claims that its plans would enable the removal of around eight million tonnes of CO2 annually once both units are fully operational. It is touting a minimum 95% capture rate for emissions at these units and a working lifespan of at least 20 years.

Drax’s power plant is the UK’s single biggest emitter in the power generation sector. This, coupled with the relative commercial infancy of man-made carbon capture technologies, means many in the green economy are skeptical about whether Drax’s plans will deliver the promised emissions benefits.


Estonia among top 5 in Europe for renewable energy consumption

Renewable energy accounted for 38.5 percent of Estonia's total energy consumption in 2022 – the fifth highest in the European Union, data from Eurostat shows.

The average share was 23 percent last year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the year before.

Sweden topped the chart at 66 percent, using hydro and wind energy, solid and liquid biofuels, and heat pumps.

Finland followed on 47.9 percent, Latvia with 43.3 percent, and Denmark at 41.6 percent.

Overall share of energy from renewable sources in 2022. Source: Eurostat

Timo Tatar, undersecretary for energy at the Ministry of Climate Change, said as the crisis caused by Russia's full-scale invasion last year made shale electricity competitive again, Estonia's share of renewable energy was expected to decline. "However, this did not happen," he wrote on social media.

Ireland, Malta, and Belgium had the lowest shares of renewable energy.

Eurostat said the EU's 2030 renewable energy target has risen from 32 percent to 42.5 percent.

"Therefore, EU countries need to intensify their efforts to collectively comply with the new EU target for 2030, which requires increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the EU's gross final energy consumption by almost 20 pp,". it said.


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