Published: 14 May 2024Last updated: 14 May 2024

The surplus of CORSIA-eligible carbon credits is expected to become negative by 2030 in the absence of new supplies coming online, according to Abatable analysis. Alejandro Limón Portillo and Greg Lydka Morris outline the findings and explain what’s next for the CORSIA scheme after its bumpy start.

The aviation sector contributes around 3% to global emissions today. As a hard-to-abate sector, direct low-carbon technological solutions including the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and electrification are being developed to reduce this impact, but they will take time to proliferate due to current cost and technological barriers.

In the interim, to address emissions the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2016 adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, to address the projected growth of the sector’s emissions from a 2019 baseline. Under the scheme, any growth in aviation emissions from 85% of 2019 levels needs to be mitigated.